Afghanistan's Qosh-Tepa Project: Is Central Asia Facing a New Water Crisis?

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Author: Thorsten Gutmann

In northern Afghanistan, a canal is being built that could alter the balance of power in Central Asia. Named Qosh Tepa, it stretches nearly 300 kilometers through the provinces of Balkh, Jowzjan, and Faryab. It is fed by the Amu Darya, the river that originates from the glaciers of the Pamir Mountains, flows along the Afghan border, and serves as the most vital lifeline for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Kabul plans to divert up to a third of its water to previously undeveloped farmland.

A project with a history

The idea is old. Even in the Soviet Union, there were plans to divert water from the Amu Darya to Afghanistan. They were never realized. Today, the Taliban government is implementing the project with greater determination than ever—as proof of its own capacity to act. Following the ban on poppy cultivation, the canal is intended to create jobs, boost exports, and consolidate the regime’s legitimacy. It is financed by mining revenues, and several thousand people are working on the construction sites.

Hope and Risk

For Afghanistan, Qosh Tepa represents hope. For its neighbors, it poses a threat. Uzbekistan would face a 15 percent decline in its water resources, while Turkmenistan could see a drop of up to 80 percent in the worst-case scenario. Even now, the Amu Darya barely reaches the Aral Sea. The additional drain could seal the ecological collapse—with salinized soils, crop failures, and new dust storms.

Fragile technology, fragile politics

The satellite images speak for themselves: leaks, unsecured embankments, evaporation losses of up to 40 percent. Efficiency looks different. But for the Taliban, it’s the symbolic value that counts. While Europe and the U.S. are dismantling dams to renature rivers, Kabul is relying on gigantic diversions—and repeating mistakes that have already led Central Asia into an ecological dead end.

Geopolitically, too, the canal is a flashpoint. Uzbekistan has officially granted Afghanistan the “right” to use it to avoid confrontation. But behind the diplomacy, nervousness is growing. In Central Asia, water is not a minor issue, but a matter of national security. Population growth, climate change, and overburdened irrigation systems are intensifying the pressure.

A second Aral Sea?

Qosh Tepa could make northern Afghanistan fertile—or trigger the next major water crisis in Central Asia. The key will be whether modern irrigation techniques are employed, regional rules for distribution are established, and accompanying ecological measures are taken seriously. If this fails, the canal risks becoming less a symbol of a new beginning and more a harbinger of doom: a second Aral Sea, this time in the name of development.