China has overtaken Russia as Tajikistan's main trading partner

Thomas Baier

China’s trade with Tajikistan rose by 12% in 2025 to $4.3 billion. This marked the first time in over 20 years that Beijing surpassed Russia as Dushanbe’s largest bilateral trading partner. The data comes from the Tajik Statistical Office and the Times of Central Asia.

Imports from China dominate the balance

In 2025, Tajikistan imported Chinese goods worth $3.7 billion. By contrast, its own exports to China amounted to only $560 million. The deficit highlights the imbalance: Tajikistan supplies raw materials and cotton but purchases machinery, vehicles, and electronics.

The total foreign trade deficit grew to 35% of GDP in 2025, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Higher imports of vehicles, machinery, and base metals drove the deficit.

Chinese direct investment reaches $5.1 billion

In 2025, China invested $294.1 million directly in Tajikistan. This gave Beijing a 57.7% share of all foreign direct investment for the year. Cumulative Chinese investment reached approximately $5.1 billion by mid-2025.

The focus areas: mining, energy, transportation, and agriculture. China is also building capacity in mobile communications and digital infrastructure. At the end of 2025, both countries announced closer cooperation on artificial intelligence and green technologies.

Rogun Dam to Cost Over $1 Billion in 2026

Tajikistan plans to allocate at least 10 billion somoni (over $1 billion) in 2026 for the construction of the Rogun hydroelectric power plant. Finance Minister Faiziddin Qahhorsoda cited the figure in February in Dushanbe. The World Bank is supporting the project with a $350 million grant from the International Development Association.

A total of $6.29 billion is still needed to complete the project. Ten international financial institutions are considering further investments. Upon completion in 2033, Rogun is expected to generate 3,780 megawatts and export approximately 70% of its energy to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

What German investors should keep in mind

Tajikistan’s GDP grew by 8.4% in 2025, driven by remittances from Russia. The ADB expects growth to slow to just 6.5% in 2026 as remittances normalize. Rogun opens up a concrete opportunity for German machinery manufacturers and energy technology providers—but competition from China and Turkey dominates the market.