Japan's Return to Central Asia

Central Asia Column “Steppe Ahead”

Author: Thorsten Gutmann

Japan is capitalizing on the geopolitical vacuum in Central Asia. While Russia is tied down by the war in Ukraine and China dominates the region but simultaneously arouses mistrust, Tokyo is strengthening its presence there—after years of relative restraint.

This is, in fact, a return. As early as 2004, Japan was the first country to engage all five republics in a joint dialogue through the “Central Asia plus Japan” format. But interest waned, meetings became increasingly rare, and political attention shifted to East Asia. Now Tokyo is picking up this thread again and signaling that Central Asia is regaining strategic importance.

At the end of August, Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya traveled to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The results of his talks went beyond diplomatic routine: a joint statement, medical aid for Kazakhstan, new scholarship programs for Uzbekistan, the agreement on a biennial dialogue mechanism, the resumption of the “Central Asia plus Japan” summit, and the announcement of a direct flight between Tokyo and Almaty starting in 2026.

This is a win for Central Asia. Tokyo brings technology, expertise, and capital that are urgently needed in areas such as digitalization, energy, and green tech. Training and employment programs foster human capital that the region lacks and also help alleviate Japan’s own shortage of skilled workers. Politically, the return of a reliable, non-hegemonic partner means additional leeway in an environment that has so far been strongly influenced by Moscow and Beijing.

But the limits are clear. Japan’s influence remains limited, geographical distance complicates projects, and its restraint on geopolitical issues—such as its stance toward Russia—builds trust but limits its reach.

Whether the initiative succeeds will depend on whether the announced summit actually takes place and concrete projects follow. Opportunities are opening up for investors in energy, infrastructure, and logistics. For governments, Japan’s engagement means greater freedom of action in foreign policy. For companies, markets with more reliable framework conditions are emerging.

Tokyo is thus returning to a stage it once helped shape. After years of silence, Japan is once again making its mark—quietly, pragmatically, and with a long-term perspective. That could be exactly what makes the difference.