Kazakhstan's New Investment Landscape: Russia on the Rise, Europe in the Shadows, and New Signals from Asia

May 27, 2025 · 3 min read · By Thorsten Gutmann · Original (German)

Steppe Ahead Column

Author: Thorsten Gutmann

When it comes to Central Asia, many people think of energy, geopolitics, and strategic transit corridors. But who invests in Kazakhstan today—and who doesn’t—says more about the global situation than many a summit declaration. 2024 shows: Russia is back, China is proceeding cautiously, the U.S. remains focused—and Europe is losing influence.

Russia: Return as an Investment Power

With $4.05 billion and a 23.6% share of all foreign direct investment, Russia is the largest single investor in Kazakhstan in 2024. This is remarkable: just a few years ago, Russia’s share was stagnating. Now, however, Russian companies are increasingly investing in transportation infrastructure, energy, industry, and banking.

Why? Moscow is pursuing a two-pronged strategy:

First: to deepen economic integration through the Eurasian Economic Union.
Second: to offset the pressure of sanctions through stronger regional integration.

In light of Western investment reluctance following the war in Ukraine, Russia is exploiting the resulting vacuum—strategically and decisively.

USA: Steady but Selective

The U.S. remains one of the most significant investors—especially in the energy sector. The U.S. company Chevron remains a key player in the Tengizchevroil joint venture, which develops the Tengiz oil field—one of the largest in the world.

But unlike Russia or China, the Americans act selectively and strategically, not across the board. They focus on:

Energy (oil, gas),
new exploration projects,
as well as strategic industrial partnerships with a long-term perspective.

The U.S. remains present—but it is not expanding its involvement at the same pace as Russia or China.

China: Lots of Symbolism, Less Capital

China is omnipresent in Kazakhstan—politically, rhetorically, and in terms of infrastructure. Yet Beijing remains cautious when it comes to investment: Only 4.3% of foreign direct investment in 2023 came from China.

Reasons for the cautious approach:

There is societal skepticism in Kazakhstan regarding Chinese influence.
Beijing prefers loans and infrastructure projects (e.g., through the Belt and Road Initiative), which are often not classified as traditional direct investments.
Furthermore, China often acts with geopolitical caution in Central Asia to avoid local tensions.

Conclusion: China’s presence is greater than the figures suggest—but it is structured differently: fewer equity investments, more infrastructure loans, and influence through state-owned enterprises.

Germany: Surprisingly weak track record

Germany, once seen as a promising technology partner for Kazakhstan, plays a minor role in direct investment. According to GTAI, the stock of German investments stands at just 536 million euros—which amounts to less than 0.5% of the total.

Why?

Many German companies perceive political uncertainty and a business risk that is difficult to quantify.
There is also a lack of major anchor investments, such as in the energy sector.
Small and medium-sized enterprises are also hesitant: a lack of local partners, language barriers, and bureaucracy are seen as hurdles.

While German exports to Kazakhstan are on the rise, capital remains hesitant. A contradiction—and a missed opportunity.

A new trend: investing in processing rather than raw materials

A ray of hope for all involved: Kazakhstan is placing greater emphasis on industrialization and diversification in 2024. According to EY, 49 new investment projects have been launched—many of them in:

manufacturing (food, mechanical engineering, chemicals),
transport & logistics,
renewable energy.

This shift away from pure raw material exports toward local value creation could be a real opportunity for European companies, particularly those from Germany, to return to the investment stage.

Conclusion: Geopolitics speaks Kazakh

2024 shows: Kazakhstan is no longer a “commodity country,” but a geopolitical pivot with growing self-confidence.

Russia is investing more decisively than ever.
The U.S. remains reliable—but selective.
China is visible, but not dominant.
And Europe—especially Germany—is watching rather than acting.

Anyone who wants to shape Central Asia’s economic future should not look at the map, but at the capital flows.
And perhaps also at the next invitation to a Kazakh investment forum.

Translated from the German original published on ostwirtschaft.de, May 27, 2025.