Turkish economy grows by 2.5% in the first quarter

The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK, also known as TurkStat) announced this on June 1.

By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2025, official gross domestic product (GDP) had increased by 3.4%, and in the third quarter of 2025 by 3.7%.

On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, the economy grew by 0.1% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, growth compared to the previous quarter had been 0.4%.

Growth remains below previous levels

The current result marks a continuation of the slowdown in economic growth. In its medium-term economic program (OVP) presented in September, the Turkish government had forecast growth of 3.8% for the full year 2026. Growth of 3.6% had been expected for 2025.

Prior to the realignment of economic policy in 2023, Turkey had regularly reported growth rates between 5% and 10%. However, since the appointment of an economic leadership more focused on price stability in June 2023, growth has slowed significantly.

Debate over the reliability of the data

The official economic data from the statistics office is viewed critically by some analysts and market observers. In particular, discussions regarding the reliability of individual data series have been ongoing for years.

Observers also point out that the initially published GDP data are frequently adjusted in subsequent revisions. While the initial releases receive significant media attention, later corrections are often less widely noted.

Outlook for the second quarter

Whether the Turkish economy regains momentum in the remainder of the year will likely depend largely on inflation, monetary policy, and trends in private consumption and investment. TÜİK plans to release the figures for the second quarter of 2026 on September 1.