Chronicles · Klaus Dormann
Klaus Dormann has chronicled the Russian economy for decades — from his years as an analyst at Ruhrgas and E.ON to today's sanctions economy. His weekly chronicles track industry, trade and finance with unmatched historical depth.
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Interest rate cut despite rising inflation: Russia's central bank is easing its monetary policy and expects moderate growth in 2026.
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After strong performance in previous years, Russia's economy is losing momentum significantly. Analysts expect only weak growth in 2026 as well.
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BOFIT Analysis of the Russian Economy: Why War-Driven Growth Is Coming to an End and Sanctions Are Increasingly Taking Effect.
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International organizations are lowering their expectations for Russia's economy. Growth will remain near stagnation in 2025 and 2026.
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High interest rates, sanctions, and low oil prices are weighing on Russia's economy. The World Bank and the UN expect only minimal growth in 2025.
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In December 2025, the year-over-year price increase was expected to be just under 6 percent (December 2024: +9.5%).
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However, overall economic output did not rise by 2.5 percent, as the government had originally planned.
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The budget calls for a nominal increase in government spending of about 4% for the coming year.
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While the Berlin-based DIW forecast a 1.5 percent increase in Russia’s GDP, the Munich-based ifo Institute predicted that the Russian economy would grow by only 0.4 percent in 2025.
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On December 2, President Putin further revised downward this growth forecast at VTB Bank’s “Russia Calling!” economic forum.
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Reports are mounting about preparations for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. What impact would a ceasefire have on the Russian economy?
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The VEB Institute estimates that overall economic output stagnated at a low level (0.0%) in the third quarter.
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Since late September, the Russian government has also been factoring in economic growth of just 1 percent for 2025 in its budget planning.
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On October 24, the central bank nevertheless lowered its high key interest rate by only 0.5 percentage points to 16.5 percent.
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It no longer expects Russia to achieve real GDP growth of between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2025.