Fitch lowers its forecast for Poland's GDP growth in 2026 to 3.3%

On June 8, Fitch Global Ratings lowered its forecast for Poland’s economic growth in 2026 from 3.6% to 3.3%. The rating agency cited weaker GDP data and a decline in foreign demand as the reasons for the downgrade.

For 2027, Fitch left its growth forecast unchanged at 2.9%. For 2028, the agency expects growth of 3.2%, marking a return to Poland’s estimated long-term growth potential.

“We have lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 from 3.6% to 3.3%. This reflects weaker economic performance as well as lower foreign demand, including the downwardly revised growth outlook for the eurozone,” Fitch explained.

For 2027, the agency expects a slight slowdown in growth, as fiscal consolidation and declining public investment from EU funds are likely to dampen economic momentum.

At the same time, Fitch continues to see several factors supporting the Polish economy. These include a tight labor market, rising wages, improved bank lending, and a fiscal policy that remains comparatively expansionary.

In addition, the agency points to the European Union’s SAFE loan program, totaling 43.7 billion euros. This is intended to support defense spending and, in the long term, strengthen the Polish defense industry’s contribution to economic growth.

Fitch has also adjusted its inflation expectations. The forecast for the end of 2026 was raised from 3.3% to 3.5%. The agency cites rising energy prices resulting from tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran as the main reason. In the following years, however, inflation is expected to gradually return toward the Polish central bank’s target range.

Regarding the key interest rate, Fitch expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep the benchmark rate at 3.75% through the end of 2026. For 2027, the agency anticipates a cut of 25 basis points to 3.5%, where the rate is also expected to remain through the end of 2028.

“The outlook reflects the trade-off between fighting inflation and maintaining an accommodative fiscal policy, a tight labor market, and elevated inflation expectations,” Fitch explained.

Regarding the exchange rate, the agency forecasts a slight weakening of the zloty. By the end of 2026, the Polish currency is expected to fall to 3.65 zloty per U.S. dollar, and to 3.68 zloty by the end of 2027. Fitch cites current market trends as well as expected changes in macroeconomic and external conditions as the reasons for this.

Fitch expects private consumption to grow by 3.8% in 2026. This is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028. Investment is projected to rise by 5.0% in 2026, followed by 2.9% in 2027 and 2.4% in 2028.

Among the three major international rating agencies, Moody’s currently assigns Poland the highest credit rating of A2 with a negative outlook. Fitch and S&P each rate the country at A-. While S&P assigns a stable outlook, Fitch maintains its negative outlook for Poland.