Poland's Energy Plan: Renewable Energy to Dominate the Electricity Sector by 2040

Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan (KPEiK) calls for a significant expansion of electricity generation capacity by 2040, as well as a greater role for renewable energy and nuclear power. The Polish government announced this on June 8.

The plan will now be submitted to the European Commission—more than two years after Poland was originally supposed to submit the update.

The KPEiK includes two scenarios. The WEM scenario (“With Existing Measures”) is based on currently applicable strategies and measures. The WAM scenario (“With Additional Measures”) assumes additional policy measures and faster implementation of EU climate and energy targets.

According to the plan, the installed capacity of the Polish power grid is set to rise to more than 90 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 and to around 128 to 156 GW by 2040. This would nearly double capacity compared to 2025 levels.

Renewable energy sources are expected to account for the largest share of the expansion. Their installed capacity could grow to 84 to 92 GW by 2040, exceeding the current total capacity of the Polish power system. Renewable energy would then account for nearly 60% of total installed capacity.

Depending on the scenario, their share of electricity generation will rise to 51.6% to 53.2% by 2030 and to 65.6% to 68.9% by 2040.

The importance of renewable energy is also expected to grow in the heating and cooling sector. Its share is projected to reach 31.6% to 36.5% by 2030 and 43.5% to 56.7% by 2040.

In addition, the plan calls for a significant expansion of nuclear energy. The first large nuclear power plants as well as small modular reactors (SMRs) are scheduled to go online in the second half of the 2030s. Together, they could generate around 40 terawatt-hours (TWh) of baseload electricity, thereby covering about 20% of the expected electricity demand.

In addition, Poland’s dependence on energy imports is expected to decrease. The net import ratio for energy sources could decline by around 11% by 2040 under the WEM scenario and by about 27% under the more ambitious WAM scenario.