Pekao lowers Poland's GDP forecast
Poland’s economic growth is expected to be weaker than previously anticipated in 2026 and 2027. This is according to a report released by Bank Pekao on May 12. The reason is ongoing tensions in the Persian Gulf, which are weighing on private consumption and exports.
Pekao now forecasts GDP growth of 3.5 percent in 2026 and 2.7 percent in 2027. Previously, the bank had expected 3.8 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. From the analysts’ perspective, the downgrade primarily reflects the impact of higher energy prices on domestic demand and foreign trade.
Energy prices weigh on inflation
According to Pekao’s assessment, a prolonged fuel crisis is increasingly becoming the base scenario. There is currently no clear prospect of a stable solution or a complete normalization of the situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have settled well above pre-escalation levels.
The bank estimates that the strongest impact of the current fuel price shock on inflation is likely to become apparent about five to six months after it began. Assuming the shock began in March and persists in a similar form until the end of 2026, Pekao expects an oil price of around $100 per barrel and a natural gas price of €50 per megawatt-hour.
In such a scenario, the energy crisis could increase inflation by about 2 percentage points. Pekao therefore sees growing risks of second-round effects. The bank now expects annual inflation to rise to around 4 percent by the end of 2026. This would place it above the National Bank of Poland’s tolerance band, which ranges from 1.5 to 3.5 percent around the inflation target of 2.5 percent.
Interest rate cuts are becoming a distant prospect
According to Pekao’s assessment, the situation in the Persian Gulf has significantly reduced the Monetary Policy Council’s willingness to cut interest rates this year. The recent hawkish press conference by NBP Governor Adam Glapiński has even brought the possibility of interest rate hikes back into the discussion.
The National Bank of Poland’s reference rate has stood at 3.75 percent since March.
The labor market is also sending mixed signals. The unemployment rate remained at 6.1 percent in March. Wage growth accelerated to 6.6 percent year-over-year, while employment continued to decline by 0.9 percent.
Pekao sees the declining demand for labor as a particular warning sign. It suggests that the labor market is weaker than the persistently low unemployment rate would suggest.
