Poland is among the fastest-growing EU economies in 2026

Poland’s economy is expected to remain among the fastest-growing economies in the European Union in 2026. According to the European Commission’s spring forecast, gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.5%. This would place Poland second in the EU, behind Malta.

As the Commission notes in its forecast published on May 21, economic growth will slow slightly compared to the expected 3.6% in 2025. Private consumption remains the main driver for now.

For 2026, the strong growth momentum from the previous year is expected to largely offset the negative economic impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, growth in public and private consumption is likely to slow as higher energy prices and lower wage growth weigh on the development of real disposable household income.

Investment, on the other hand, is expected to contribute significantly more to growth. Key factors include more intensive use of EU funding—particularly in the final year of the Recovery and Resilience Facility—as well as a growing share of components produced in Poland amid rising defense spending. However, according to the Commission’s assessment, net exports will continue to weigh on economic growth.

GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2027. While private consumption remains an important driver of growth, it is expected to contribute less to growth than in previous years. Investment and public spending are also projected to decline as inflows of EU funds decrease. At the same time, the negative impact of net exports is likely to diminish due to rising exports.

Labor market remains robust

The labor market situation is expected to remain stable. The unemployment rate is projected to remain at around 3%. The demographic decline in the labor supply is expected to be partially offset by additional workers from abroad.

According to the forecast, nominal wage growth per employee will slow from 8% in 2025 to about 6% in 2027.

Inflation and public finances

Inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is expected to rise from 3.3% in 2025 to 3.6% in 2026. The main reason is higher energy prices. For 2027, the Commission expects a decline to 2.9%.

Poland’s government deficit rose to 7.3% of GDP in 2025. This is primarily due to higher spending on defense, public sector wages, and social benefits. The deficit is projected to fall to 6.5% of GDP by 2026 and to 6.3% by 2027.

At the same time, public debt is expected to rise from 59.7% of GDP in 2025 to 68.3% in 2027.

The European Commission notes that a possible extension of government measures to lower fuel prices, as well as political uncertainties surrounding planned tax and revenue reforms, pose risks to the budget projections.

On the other hand, the planned introduction of a special tax on energy producers in 2026, as well as potential tax increases starting in 2027, could boost government revenue more than previously expected.