Slower growth in investment and consumption is holding back Poland's economy

According to seasonally adjusted preliminary data released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on June 1, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026.

The result is 0.1 percentage points higher than the flash estimate published by GUS in mid-May. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the economy had grown by 3.7%. The slowdown was driven by weaker growth in private consumption and lower investment momentum.

“We had feared that the decline in investment would be more pronounced than actually observed, while private consumption developed somewhat weaker than expected,” Erste Group explained in an analysis.

Investment rose by 2.4% year-over-year in the first quarter, after growing by 6.6% in the fourth quarter. Private consumption increased by 3.3%, slowing from 4.3% in the previous quarter.

Continued robust domestic demand boosted imports, while weaker international demand weighed on exports. As a result, net exports had a neutral overall impact on economic growth in the first quarter, after having reduced GDP by 0.3 percentage points in the previous quarter.

Despite the weaker performance at the start of the year, analysts continue to expect solid economic growth for the full year. The Polish economy is projected to grow by around 3.4% in 2026, following an expected growth rate of 3.6% in 2025.

“We expect private consumption growth to slow from 3.7% last year to around 3%. Weakening wage growth and a likely decline in demand for durable consumer goods due to uncertainty in the Middle East and higher fuel prices, which are limiting households’ financial leeway, are weighing on the outlook,” ING explained.

At the same time, analysts expect investment to play a stronger role as a driver of growth.

“GDP growth is likely to be increasingly supported by higher investment. We expect investment to rise by nearly 8% this year thanks to the use of funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility and greater utilization of EU Cohesion Funds,” said ING.

On a quarterly basis, the Polish economy grew by 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis between January and March, following a 1.0% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Adjusted for inflation, GDP growth in the first quarter stood at 3.5% year-over-year, compared with 4.1% in the previous three months.